The global IT market
Market is still growing, although barely IDC predicts the slowest IT markets will be the United States, Japan and Western Europe, which all will experience around 1 percent growth. The healthiest economies will be in Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.Similarly, Gartner's worst-case scenario for 2009 is that IT spending will increase 2.3 percent, according to a report released in mid-October. Gartner said the U.S. tech industry will be flat. Hardest hit will be Europe, where IT expenditures are expected to shrink in 2009.
Overall, Gartner said global IT spending will reach $3.8 trillion in 2008, up from $3.15 trillion in 2007.
"We expect a gradual recovery throughout 2010, and by 2011 we should be back into a more normal kind of environment," said IDC Analyst Stephen Minton. If the recession turns out to be deeper or last longer than four quarters as most economics expect, "it could turn into a contraction in IT spending," Minton added. "In that case, the IT market would still be weak in 2010 but we'd see a gradual recovery in 2011, and we'd be back to normal by 2012."
It's not as bad as 2001
Even the grimmest predictions for global IT spending during the next two years aren't as severe as the declines the tech industry experienced between 2001 and 2003.
"Global economic problems are impacting IT budgets, however the IT industry will not see the dramatic reductions that were seen during the dot.com bust. . . . At that time, budgets were slashed from mid-double-digit growth to low-single-digit growth," Gartner said in a statement.
Gartner said the reason IT won't suffer as badly in 2009 as it did during the 2001 recession is that "operations now view IT as a way to transform their businesses and adopt operating models that are leaner. . . . IT is embedded in running all aspects of the business."
"This time around, none of that is true," Minton said. "Today, there isn't a glut of bandwidth. There is high utilization of software applications, which are purchased in a more modular way and integrated much faster into business operations. Unlike in 2001, companies aren't waking up to find that they should be cutting back on IT spending. They're only cutting back on new initiatives because of economic conditions."
"We're anxious about whether the economy will resemble what the most pessimistic economists are saying or the more mainstream economists," Minton said. "But we don't see any reason that it will turn into a disaster like 2001. It shouldn’t get anywhere near that bad."
A recession is a good time to get on with studies
Not only can you duck a possible layoff, but returning to college can help you gain useful new skills that could boost both your employability and your paycheck.
Career Advancement: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that well-learned workers generally gross more annual pay than less-educated employees. While people who only have high-school diplomas earn an average yearly salary of around $31,000, for example, employees with doctoral degrees garner a mean annual pay of about $75,000.
When researching possible degree paths, seek out programs that can improve your skills in your chosen field . If you work in middle management, for example, a Master's in Business Administration (MBA) program could help you catapult into a senior management position. Paralegals or legal secretaries might look into advanced law degree programs, including human rights law, commercial law, and international property law. A medical assistant could upgrade his or her paycheck by gaining certification as a registered nurse (RN). But remember, advanced training doesn't just increase the salary; it can also lead to more job responsibility, increased workplace challenges, and higher career satisfaction.
